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China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012

NEW YORK, July 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:


China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View: Despite the country's calls for cheaper pharmaceutical access, we maintained that China will be a highly attractive market for pharmaceutical players. In addition, its strong pharmaceutical and medical devices trade in 2011 and in the first quarter of 2012 highlight that the general weakness in its macroeconomic has not filter down to the sector and instead the sector performance will largely hinge on the country's healthcare reform plans and the subsequent release of its Second National Essential Drug

List this year.

Headline Expenditure Projections


- Pharmaceuticals: CNY432bn (US66.7bn) in 2011 to CNY523bn (US$81.7bn) in 2012; +20.9% in local currency and +22.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q212.

- Healthcare: CNY2297bn (US$355bn) in 2011 to CNY2,595bn (US$406bn) in 2012; +13% in local currency terms and +14.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 following receipt of new data.

- Medical Devices: CNY117bn (US$18.2bn) in 2011 to CNY146bn (US$22.8bn) in 2012; +24.4% in local currency terms and +25.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 due to stronger than expected trade.

Risk/Reward Rating: China maintains its score of 62.5 from Q212 and moved up the ranks from the firth to the fourth position on our proprietary index. This is largely due to the decline in Singapore's score from 63.4 in Q212 to 61.9 in this quarter.


Headline Expenditure Projections


- In May 2012, The president of J&J's Xian-Janssen Pharmaceutical joint venture, Thad Huston, said the firm is interested in acquiring local firms or products in mental health, oncology, immunology, vaccines and over-the-counter drugs in order to continue its growth in China. Huston specifically said the firm is 'not interested in doing a generic or traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), for example'.

- In April 2012, Chinese police arrested 22 people for producing and selling pharmaceutical capsules containing high levels of chromium. The police detained 11 people from four manufacturing firms in Xinchang, a major production base, a public security bureau spokesperson said. According to reports, 43 capsule manufacturing firms will be inspected by the police. The State Food and Drug Administration has released an emergency notice ordering the suspension of sales and consumption of drugs packed into the contaminated capsules. Drugmakers will face legal action if the results of the inspection show they were unable to meet government standards.

- In March 2012, China is intending to launch a healthcare scheme to cover migrant workers' medical insurance when they seek treatment in places other than their home town. The announcement was made by Minister of Health Chen Zhu at a national conference in Zhejiang province. He said the government is likely to select one or two provinces from the prosperous regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Pan-Bohai Economic Zone to pilot the plan, before expanding it to more provinces during the 12th five-year plan period (2011- 2015).


BMI Economic View:

China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situation facing the economy in Q109, when a recovery in exports combined with a fiscal stimulus programme resulted in a V-shaped recovery, this time around we expect continued lacklustre growth even as the central banks is likely to loosen monetary policy. As such, we are sticking with our 2012 growth forecast of 7.5%.

BMI Political View: The ousting of Chongqing municipality leader Bo Xilai has created some near-term uncertainty that is likely to weigh on equity markets as fears mount that Chongqing's breakneck economic growth rate will suffer. That said, we view the news as a positive for China's longer-term political and economic health, as it may suggest reformists within China's elite are grabbing the balance of power in a long struggle between the rival political factions.




Executive Summary ....... 5

China Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT .... 7

China Political SWOT ....... 8

China Economic SWOT ..... 8

China Business Environment SWOT ...... 9

Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings ...... 10

Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical And Healthcare RRRs, Q312 ........ 10

Rewards ....... 11

Risks .. 11

China – Market Summary ...... 13

Regulatory Regime ....... 14

Intellectual Property Issues ....... 16

Counterfeit Medicines ...... 18

Price Cuts .... 20

Reimbursement Regime .... 21

Industry Trends and Developments ......... 24

Epidemiology ......... 24

Communicable Diseases .. 25

Non-Communicable Diseases .... 25

Healthcare Sector .. 26

Hospital Sector ...... 28

R&D Activity 29

Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China .... 30

Clinical Trials Activity ..... 31

Biotechnology Sector ....... 34

Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ...... 35

Vaccine Sector ....... 36

Industry Forecast Scenario ... 39

Overall Market Forecast.. 39

Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 41

Key Growth Factors – Industry.. 42

Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 ...... 43

Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 .. 43

Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 .... 44

Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic Forecast .... 45

China - Economic Activity ......... 49

Prescription Drug Market Forecast ..... 50

Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ...... 51

Patented Drug Market Forecast 52

Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 ......... 53

Generic Drug Market Forecast .. 54

Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 55

OTC Medicine Market Forecast 56

Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 .. 58

Medical Device Market Forecast ......... 59

Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ......... 61

Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 62

China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4

Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 .. 64

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts ........ 65

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 65

Competitive Landscape ......... 67

Pharmaceutical Industry .. 67

Top 20 China Or Hong Kong-Based Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation . 67

Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments May 2012 . 68

Traditional Chinese Medicine .... 69

Company Profiles ......... 73

Leading Local Companies .... 73

Sinopharm.... 73

China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group (CSPC) ......... 75

North China Pharmaceutical Corporation (NCPC) . 77

Shanghai Pharmaceutical 79

Leading Multinational Companies .. 81

GlaxoSmithKline .... 81

Pfizer . 83

AstraZeneca . 85

Merck KGaA 88

Sanofi . 90

Novartis ....... 92

Roche . 95

Eli Lilly (Lilly China) ....... 97

Merck & Co . 99

Bayer Schering Pharma ..101

Demographic Outlook 104

Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .....105

Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ......106

Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .107

Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .107

Glossary .. 108

BMI Methodology ....... 110

How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ..110

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .....111

Ratings Overview ..111

Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 111

Weighting ....113

Table: Weighting Of Components .......113




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Drug and Medication Industry: China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012



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Nicolas Bombourg Reportlinker Email: US: (805)652-2626 Intl: +1 805-652-2626


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