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Small, smaller, smallest -- The plight of the vaquita

pecies, the Mexican Government has finally taken specific actions to try to prevent its extinction. On 29 December 2005 the Ministry of Environment declared a Vaquita Refuge that contains within its borders approximately 80% of all verified vaquita sighting positions. In the same decree, the State Governments of Sonora and Baja California were offered $(US)1 million to compensate affected fishermen. Another big step will be to convince the relevant State Governments of the Upper Gulf to support actions proposed by an international vaquita recovery team. These Governments have argued that no action should be taken until a second survey for a new abundance estimate shows definitively that the population is declining.

But the question of how often new estimates or indices must be obtained to monitor trends is a tricky one. Ship surveys are expensive and they cannot be expected to detect population declines or increases on an acceptable timescale for such a critically endangered species. According to one analysis, a single survey in 2006 or 2007 would have a probability of only 11% of detecting a 3%/year decline and a 16% probability of detecting a 10%/year decline. Achieving an acceptable probability (e.g. 95%) of detecting a 3% decline would require annual surveys over a period of 39 years at a cost of approximately $29 million. Moreover, by that time (c. 45 years from now) only some 180 or so vaquitas would be left. Clearly, it is wiser to invest available funds in conservation actions, particularly in ones that offer viable socioeconomic alternatives to fishermen.

Mexico has a very good record in helping endangered marine mammals to recover. There are no better examples anywhere in the world than eastern Pacific gray whales and northern elephant seals, both of which came back from low numbers and now represent true conservation success stories. Similar efforts are needed urgently for the vaquita, a small animal living in a small area with a small
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Source:Blackwell Publishing Ltd.


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