Navigation Links
Map predicting spread of avian flu

The 2003 epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Netherlands is the only recent epidemic of HPAI in the developed world. Gert-Jan Boender and colleagues have examined the data from this outbreak and produced a model which can predict the probability of infection from one farm to another; the 'transmission kernel'. They also identify high-risk areas in the Netherlands and analyze various control strategies, concluding that in these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by massive culling of susceptible farms.

For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, one in the central region and one in the south, close to the German and Belgian border (see attached figure). The authors suggest local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic in these areas.

The paper, published in the Open Access journal PLoS Computational Biology, arrives at these conclusions through a computational (or mathematical) modeling method, an approach which has already proved its worth in the analysis of infectious diseases such as the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. The method can estimate the key parameters which determine the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms. These risk maps identify geographic areas in which a given intervention strategy fails to control the spread of the disease between farms. "The risk map concept is an instrument suitable for analyses of epidemic control options both during crisis and in peacetime" says Boender.


'"/>

Source:Public Library of Science


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Mayo Clinic: Gene expression profiling not quite perfected in predicting lung cancer prognosis
2. Anti-bacterial additive widespread in U.S. waterways
3. HIV-1 spread through six transmission lines in the UK
4. Reservoirs may accelerate the spread of invasive aquatic species, researchers say
5. Undesirable expatriates: Preventing the spread of invasive animals
6. Nanobacteria in clouds could spread disease, scientists claim
7. Rabies spread speeds up
8. New understanding of cell movement may yield ways to brake cancers spread
9. VCU Massey Cancer Center study shows enzyme linked to spread of breast cancer cells
10. Industrial contaminants spread by seabirds in High Arctic, new Canadian study shows
11. Past droughts geographically widespread in the West, according to tree-ring data
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:3/6/2017)... March 6, 2017 Mintigo , ... today announced Predictive Sales Coach TM , its ... sales intelligence into Salesforce. This unique AI application ... sales organizations with deep knowledge of their customers ... intelligent engagement. Predictive Sales Coach extends Mintigo,s existing ...
(Date:3/2/2017)... March 2, 2017 Summary This ... understand Merck KGaA and its partnering interests and activities ... Description The Partnering Deals and Alliance since ... activity of one of the world,s leading life sciences ... upon purchase to ensure inclusion of the most up ...
(Date:3/2/2017)... Australia , March 2, 2017 Australian ... Ltd (ASX: CYP), has signed an agreement with ... from the Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute and Department of ... to conduct a further preclinical study to support the ... treatment of asthma.  Asthma is a ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:3/22/2017)...   iSpecimen ®, the marketplace for ... Service (DPS), a full-service anatomic pathology reference lab ... States , has joined a program offered by ... (DHIN) to make human biospecimens and associated data available ... announced in 2015 as a collaboration between iSpecimen and ...
(Date:3/22/2017)... March 22, 2017 /PRNewswire/ - FACIT announced a ... or "Propellon"), a start-up created by FACIT focused ... FACIT,s investment, combined with non-dilutive capital, achieves a ... seed funding enables Propellon to accelerate the nomination ... for financing and/or entering a strategic partnership for ...
(Date:3/22/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... March 21, 2017 , ... Premier executive ... & Life Science Search Firm by Hunt Scanlon Media. , Hunt Scanlon ... and the most widely referenced global news source in the human capital sector. , ...
(Date:3/22/2017)... ... March 21, 2017 , ... Benchworks CEO ... Executive Officer Forum on March 23-24 in San Diego. The event is a ... diagnostic industries. , Benchworks Vice President Christian Meyer will also participate in the ...
Breaking Biology Technology: