Navigation Links
University of Pennsylvania researchers develop formula to gauge risk of disease clusters
Date:8/16/2007

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have developed a mathematical formula to assess whether concentrated disease outbreaks can be ascribed to random-chance events or, instead, suggest a contagious or environmental effect that requires epidemiological investigation.

A feature of the formula is that, given the relevant data, the required probability calculations can be done in less than five seconds on a personal computer.

In statistical terms, the formula gives an exact expression for the probability distribution of the maximum of a number of multinomially distributed random variables. Mathematically, the formula depends on generating function technology developed by Herbert Wilf, professor of mathematics in the School of Arts and Science at Penn. Warren Ewens of Penns Department of Biology joined Wilf in developing the formula. Until now, only potentially unreliable, approximate formulae have been available.

The formula was used to investigate two disease cluster cases.

The first was the classic case of a clustering of eight cases of leukemia in Niles, Ill., in 1956-1960, which was reasonably assessed as a chance, random event. On the other hand, 12 cases of acute lymphocytic leukemia in Churchill County, Nev., in 1999-2001 was assessed not to be a chance event but due to a common, possibly environmental cause.

Multiple cases of non-communicable disease, like leukemia, have clustered in small geographic areas quickly, resulting in costly epidemiological study. The authors note that a purely mathematical calculation cannot answer serious public-health questions, but that they can nevertheless point to cases that appear to require further public health study.


'/>"/>
Contact: Jordan Reese
jreese@pobox.upenn.edu
215-573-6604
University of Pennsylvania
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. University of Manchester makes made-to-measure skin and bones a reality using inkjet printers
2. New protein discovered by Hebrew University researchers
3. Next Generation Body Scanner Launched By The University Of Manchester
4. Roundup®highly lethal to amphibians, finds University of Pittsburgh researcher
5. Green catalyst destroys pesticides and munitions toxins, finds Carnegie Mellon University
6. University of Nevada, Reno research team discovers hormone that causes malaria mosquito to urinate
7. Carnegie Mellon University research reveals how cells process large genes
8. University of Delaware researchers develop cancer nanobomb
9. University of Arizona plant scientists to unravel maize genome
10. Team led by Carnegie Mellon University scientist finds first evidence of a living memory trace
11. University of Utah to help build bionic arm
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/29/2017)... CHICAGO , March 29, 2017  higi, the ... ecosystem in North America , today ... Partners and the acquisition of EveryMove. The new investment ... extensive set of tools to transform population health activities ... and lifestyle data. higi collects and secures ...
(Date:3/23/2017)... 2017 The report "Gesture Recognition and Touchless Sensing Market ... - Global Forecast to 2022", published by MarketsandMarkets, the market is expected to ... between 2017 and 2022. Continue Reading ... ... ...
(Date:3/20/2017)... March 20, 2017 At this year,s CeBIT Chancellor ... biometrics manufacturer DERMALOG. The Chancellor came to the DERMALOG stand together with ... this year,s CeBIT partner country. At the largest German biometrics company the ... fingerprint, face and iris recognition as well as DERMALOG´s multi-biometrics system.   ... ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/22/2017)... ... 22, 2017 , ... Ovation Fertility supports the American Medical ... new hope for prospective parents who are challenged with costs of treatment. AMA ... Health Organization’s designation in hopes of changing the way health insurers, governments and ...
(Date:6/22/2017)... PA (PRWEB) , ... June 22, 2017 , ... ... and superior results to clients throughout the biopharma and life sciences industries, continue ... the industry is seeing. Tunnell’s Kip Wolf will be speaking on “The State ...
(Date:6/22/2017)... ... June 22, 2017 , ... RURO, Inc., a leading LIMS, ... a content-packed update to the Limfinity® framework. , LimitLIS® and other RURO solutions ... base of customers among labs and other businesses. Limfinity® 6.5 adds new features ...
(Date:6/20/2017)... , ... June 20, 2017 , ... ... that the CTNext board of directors has formed a Higher Education Entrepreneurship Advisory ... group composed of institution presidents and other high-ranking representatives from 35 higher education ...
Breaking Biology Technology: