Navigation Links
University of Pennsylvania researchers develop formula to gauge risk of disease clusters
Date:8/16/2007

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have developed a mathematical formula to assess whether concentrated disease outbreaks can be ascribed to random-chance events or, instead, suggest a contagious or environmental effect that requires epidemiological investigation.

A feature of the formula is that, given the relevant data, the required probability calculations can be done in less than five seconds on a personal computer.

In statistical terms, the formula gives an exact expression for the probability distribution of the maximum of a number of multinomially distributed random variables. Mathematically, the formula depends on generating function technology developed by Herbert Wilf, professor of mathematics in the School of Arts and Science at Penn. Warren Ewens of Penns Department of Biology joined Wilf in developing the formula. Until now, only potentially unreliable, approximate formulae have been available.

The formula was used to investigate two disease cluster cases.

The first was the classic case of a clustering of eight cases of leukemia in Niles, Ill., in 1956-1960, which was reasonably assessed as a chance, random event. On the other hand, 12 cases of acute lymphocytic leukemia in Churchill County, Nev., in 1999-2001 was assessed not to be a chance event but due to a common, possibly environmental cause.

Multiple cases of non-communicable disease, like leukemia, have clustered in small geographic areas quickly, resulting in costly epidemiological study. The authors note that a purely mathematical calculation cannot answer serious public-health questions, but that they can nevertheless point to cases that appear to require further public health study.


'/>"/>
Contact: Jordan Reese
jreese@pobox.upenn.edu
215-573-6604
University of Pennsylvania
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. University of Manchester makes made-to-measure skin and bones a reality using inkjet printers
2. New protein discovered by Hebrew University researchers
3. Next Generation Body Scanner Launched By The University Of Manchester
4. Roundup®highly lethal to amphibians, finds University of Pittsburgh researcher
5. Green catalyst destroys pesticides and munitions toxins, finds Carnegie Mellon University
6. University of Nevada, Reno research team discovers hormone that causes malaria mosquito to urinate
7. Carnegie Mellon University research reveals how cells process large genes
8. University of Delaware researchers develop cancer nanobomb
9. University of Arizona plant scientists to unravel maize genome
10. Team led by Carnegie Mellon University scientist finds first evidence of a living memory trace
11. University of Utah to help build bionic arm
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:1/6/2017)... Jan. 6, 2017  Privately-held CalciMedica, Inc., announced ... healthy volunteers of a novel calcium release-activated calcium ... pancreatitis. Acute pancreatitis, sudden painful ... disorder, but can be very serious.  In severe cases ... where extended hospital stays, time in the ICU ...
(Date:1/6/2017)... -- Delta ID Inc., a leader in consumer-grade iris scanning ... CES® 2017. Delta ID has collaborated with Gentex Corporation ... of iris scanning as a secure, reliable and convenient ... car, and as a way to elevate the security ... ID and Gentex will demonstrate (booth #7326 LVCC) a ...
(Date:1/4/2017)... , Jan. 4, 2017  CES 2017 – ... sensor technology, today announced the launch of two ... systems, the highly-accurate biometric sensor modules that incorporate ... technology, experience and expertise. The two new designs ... specifically for hearables, and Benchmark BW2.0, a 2-LED ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:1/19/2017)... ... January 19, 2017 , ... November Research Group, ... biopharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers and regulators, is proud to announce the worldwide ... email client designed to provide product vigilance departments with the flexibility and ease ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... 19, 2017 AquaBounty Technologies, Inc. (AIM: ABTU; ... in aquaculture and a majority-owned subsidiary of Intrexon Corporation ... completed the listing of its common shares on the ... Intrexon. "AquaBounty,s listing on NASDAQ represents an ... exposure to the U.S. markets as we advance plans ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... ... January 19, 2017 , ... FireflySci Inc. is a ... The tremendous growth is accounted to two main factors. The first is ... expanding network of vendors supplying FireflySci products all around the world. , 2016 was ...
(Date:1/19/2017)...  Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. (OTCQB: NWBO) ("NW Bio"), a ... operable and inoperable solid tumor cancers, announced today that ... NW Bio, will present at the Phacilitate Immunotherapy World ... Regency Hotel in Miami, Florida . ... "New Therapeutic Approaches – Expanding the Reach of Cancer ...
Breaking Biology Technology: