Navigation Links
Study explores the role of uncertainty in infectious disease modelling
Date:10/21/2013

Research by scientists at the University of Liverpool has found that greater consideration of the limitations and uncertainties present in every infectious disease model would improve its effectiveness/usefulness and value.

Infectious disease dynamical modelling plays a central role in planning for outbreaks of human and livestock diseases, in projecting how they might progress and guiding and informing policy responses.

Modelling is commissioned by governments or may be developed independently by researchers. It has been used to inform policy decisions for human and animal diseases such as SARS, H1N1 swine influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and is being used to inform action in the campaign to control bovine TB.

In a study published in PLOS One, researchers analysed scientific papers, interviews, policies, reports and outcomes of previous infectious diseases outbreaks in the UK to ascertain the role uncertainties played in previous models and how these were understood by both the designers of the model and the users of the model.

They found that many models used to respond to epidemics provided only cursory reference to the uncertainties of the information and data or the parameters used. Whilst the models were uncertain many still informed action.

Dr Rob Christley, from the University's Institute of Infection and Global Health, said: "It is accepted that models will never be able to predict 100% the size, shape or form of an outbreak and it is recognised that a level of uncertainty always exists in modelling. However, modellers often fear detailed discussion of this uncertainty will undermine the model in the eyes of policy makers.

"This study found that the uncertainties and limitations of a model are sometimes hidden and sometimes revealed, and that which occurs is context dependent.

"Whilst it isn't possible to calculate the level of uncertainty, a better understanding and communica
'/>"/>

Contact: Sarah Stamper
sarah.stamper@liv.ac.uk
01-517-943-044
University of Liverpool
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related biology news :

1. Clean living is a luxury wild animals cant afford, study suggests
2. Study puts freshwater biodiversity on the map for planners and policymakers
3. What makes us left or right handed? New study rules out strong genetic factors
4. Study: Acidity can change cell membrane properties
5. Leading Pharma Company Selects Clinilabs to Conduct a Phase 1 Study of an Investigational Type 2 Diabetes Medication
6. $1.5 million NCI Grant to aid Huntsman Cancer Institute researcher study melanoma, sun damage link
7. Study finds steroids may persist longer in the environment than expected
8. New study offers hope for halting incurable citrus disease
9. Global study reveals new hotspots of fish biodiversity
10. Family Resiliency Center helps study how food-bank clients afford basic non-food items
11. New CU-Boulder-led study finds microbial clock may help determine time of death
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:11/7/2014)... Researchers led by Dr. Debra Auguste, associate professor, ... at The City College of New York, have ... treatment for one of the most aggressive forms ... (TNBCs) have a high mortality rate owing to ... effective therapeutic options. However, Professor Auguste,s team, discovered ...
(Date:11/6/2014)... team of Florida State University biologists could lead to ... and survive environmental swings such as droughts or floods. ... the journal The Plant Cell , sheds light ... is organized in a cell and how plants regulate ... and others are turned off. , "If you understand ...
(Date:11/6/2014)... - Insilico Medicine, Inc, a Baltimore-based bioinformatics company ... diseases announced a research collaboration with the international ... Inc (OTC: CSBR). , "There are many companies ... Champions Oncology,s TumorGraft technology is unique in a ... experimentally generating vast amounts of valuable data. Our ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):Maize analysis yields whole new world of genetic science 2Insilico Medicine, Inc announces research collaboration with Champions Oncology, Inc 2
... rapidly expanding their ranges northward, apparently in response to ... these historically southern species are replacing their northern counterparts. ... of Michigan, Michigan State University and Ohio,s Miami University, ... Global Change Biology . "When you read about ...
... costs of genome sequencing rapidly decreasing, and with the ... a computer to cheaply store, access, and analyze sequence ... apply genome data to real world problems, including reducing ... bioenergy, this may be accomplished through development of improved ...
... developed at North Carolina State University makes an animal ... has been removed from the animal,s body, allowing researchers ... for heart surgery. The machine saves researchers time and ... technologies in a realistic surgical environment, without the cost ...
Cached Biology News:Climate change driving Michigan mammals north 2Climate change driving Michigan mammals north 3Climate change driving Michigan mammals north 4A genome may reduce your carbon footprint 2'Beating' heart machine expedites research and development of new surgical tools, techniques 2
(Date:11/26/2014)... The report on the Global Smart Sensor ... market for revenue forecasts and market trends. It expects ... from 2013 to 2018. At the projected rate, the ... million by 2018. , Browse through the Global Smart ... about the market segmentation and in-depth analysis supported by ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... In keeping with the holiday spirit, DNA ... Thanksgiving savings. The company is offering up a variety ... this holiday weekend as well as a photo contest ... Monday are right around the corner, and DNA Spectrum ... and those looking to explore their ancestry, health, and ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... , Nov. 26, 2014 The ... from a survey of European physicians at the ... Innovation and Biological Therapies" at the Spanish Ministry ... hosted by EuropaBio and the Spanish Bioindustry Association ... Health, physicians from Spanish oncology and rheumatology societies, ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... PMG Research, Inc. announced today the ... network of sites that provide clinical research services to pharmaceutical ... lives through its partnerships with large physician practices and integrated ... locations in the Southeastern United States and spans over 60 ... board will be held by: Dr. Robert Holmes, MD, ...
Breaking Biology Technology:Global Smart Sensor Market in Building Automation is expected to reach a value of $1,415.6 million by 2018 - Report by MicroMarket Monitor 2Global Smart Sensor Market in Building Automation is expected to reach a value of $1,415.6 million by 2018 - Report by MicroMarket Monitor 3Global Smart Sensor Market in Building Automation is expected to reach a value of $1,415.6 million by 2018 - Report by MicroMarket Monitor 4DNA Spectrum Offers Last Minute Thanksgiving Coupons 2DNA Spectrum Offers Last Minute Thanksgiving Coupons 3ASBM Presents European Physicians Survey at Spanish Ministry of Health 2PMG Research Names Medical Advisory Board 2PMG Research Names Medical Advisory Board 3
... 3SBio Inc. (Nasdaq:,SSRX), a leading China-based biotechnology company ... today,announced the results of the shareholder votes at ... September 12, 2008 (Friday) at 10:00 a.m.,(Beijing time)., ... Dr. Jing Lou,Liping Xu, Bin Huang, Lawrence S. ...
... in Routine Vaccination Program ... -, COLLEGEVILLE, Pa., Sept. 15 Wyeth,Pharmaceuticals, ... today announced that,South Africa has initiated an immunization ... Vaccine,Adsorbed), a vaccine which helps protect infants and ...
... Bulletin Board: CBPC) announced today that it has filed ... an amendment to its Certificate,of Incorporation to effect a ... ("Common Stock") will begin trading on a,reverse-split basis on ... By unanimous written consent dated July 3, 2008 the ...
Cached Biology Technology:South Africa Begins Introduction of PREVENAR into Childhood Immunization Program 2South Africa Begins Introduction of PREVENAR into Childhood Immunization Program 3South Africa Begins Introduction of PREVENAR into Childhood Immunization Program 4China Biopharma Effects 1 for 100 Reverse Stock Split 2China Biopharma Effects 1 for 100 Reverse Stock Split 3
Request Info...
Eliminate electrical interference from any analog signal, without filtering. Ideal for electrophysiology applications like EKG, EMG, and EEGs. Removes 50/60hz noise and harmonics caused by grounding ...
Buffer used for mitocapture assays....
... GFX Purification Kit, 50 purifications. Allows ... probesProvides efficient removal of unincorporated CyDye ... with superior yields of labeled cDNA ... of cDNA labeled by either direct ...
Biology Products: